Total Volume
$28.3K
Outcomes
7
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of squar...
All Outcomes
| Outcome | Yes | No | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| <4m sq km | 58.0% | 80.0% | $0 |
| 4.8-5m sq km | 44.0% | 99.1% | $0 |
| 4.4-4.6m sq km | 36.1% | 89.9% | $0 |
| 4.2-4.4m sq km | 19.8% | 91.0% | $0 |
| 4.6-4.8m sq km | 18.0% | 97.0% | $0 |
| 4.0-4.2m sq km | 15.7% | 86.9% | $0 |
| 5m+ sq km | 0.5% | 99.7% | $0 |
More Weather Events
| Event | Outcomes | Volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|
| Named storm forms before hurricane season? | 1 | $325.8K | May 31, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Seoul on March 30? | 11 | $315.7K | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 30? | 11 | $287.5K | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Denver on March 29? | 11 | $168.3K | Mar 29, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Toronto on March 31? | 11 | $140.0K | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Megaquake by March 31? | 1 | $126.2K | Mar 31, 2026 |