Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Active
Yes
12.0%
$0.1200
No
90.0%
$0.9000
Event Volume
$37.1K
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq...
More Climate & science Events
| Event | Volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|
| Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? | $7.2M | Dec 31, 2026 |