Total Volume
$2.7M
Outcomes
13
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this mar...
All Outcomes
| Outcome | Yes | No | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 90.0% | 11.0% | $0 |
| 4.1% | 96.0% | $0 | |
| OpenAI | 2.2% | 98.2% | $1 |
| DeepSeek | 1.5% | 98.7% | $2 |
| xAI | 1.2% | 98.9% | $0 |
| Alibaba | 0.8% | 99.6% | $0 |
| Baidu | 0.4% | 99.8% | $0 |
| ByteDance | 0.3% | 99.8% | $0 |
| Moonshot | 0.3% | 99.8% | $0 |
| Meituan | 0.3% | 99.8% | $0 |
| Z.ai | 0.3% | 99.8% | $0 |
| Mistral | 0.2% | 99.9% | $0 |
| Amazon | 0.2% | 99.9% | $0 |
More Tech Events
| Event | Outcomes | Volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|
| Which companies will be acquired before 2027? | 16 | $17.3M | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Which company has the best AI model end of March? | 11 | $15.9M | Mar 31, 2026 |
| IPOs before 2027? | 33 | $5.2M | Dec 31, 2026 |
| What will SpaceX's public ticker be? | 9 | $3.9M | Dec 31, 2027 |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | 1 | $3.0M | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Claude 5 released by…? | 9 | $2.9M | Apr 30, 2026 |