How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

Climate & science Jupiter Ends Dec 31, 2026 286 days left
Active
Total Volume
$583.4K
Outcomes
6
Resolution Rules

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?questio...

All Outcomes

Outcome Yes No Volume
1 50.0% 51.0% $0
0 37.0% 64.0% $0
2 10.2% 95.1% $0
3 5.4% 98.7% $0
5+ 2.9% 99.6% $0
4 2.5% 99.1% $0

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