Total Volume
$1.3M
Outcomes
12
Resolution
No
Resolution Rules
If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change...
All Outcomes
| Outcome | Yes | No | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 31 | 100.0% | 100.0% | $0 |
| February 28 | 100.0% | 100.0% | $0 |
| April 21 | 59.0% | 65.0% | $0 |
| Super Heavy booster explodes? | 54.0% | 63.0% | $0 |
| April 30 | 52.0% | 71.0% | $0 |
| Successful splash down? | 44.0% | 78.0% | $0 |
| April 14 | 30.0% | 89.0% | $0 |
| April 7 | 19.0% | 98.0% | $0 |
| Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | 9.9% | 93.1% | $0 |
| March 31 | 1.0% | 99.3% | $0 |
| December 31 | 0.0% | 0.0% | $0 |
| November 30 | 0.0% | 0.0% | $0 |
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