Total Volume
$1.4M
Outcomes
12
Resolution
No
Resolution Rules
If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change...
All Outcomes
| Outcome | Yes | No | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 31 | 100.0% | 100.0% | $0 |
| February 28 | 100.0% | 100.0% | $0 |
| April 30 | 79.0% | 57.0% | $0 |
| Super Heavy booster explodes? | 62.0% | 44.0% | $0 |
| April 21 | 45.0% | 79.0% | $0 |
| Successful splash down? | 45.0% | 66.0% | $0 |
| April 14 | 26.0% | 92.0% | $0 |
| Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | 9.3% | 93.7% | $0 |
| April 7 | 3.0% | 97.4% | $0 |
| March 31 | 0.2% | 99.9% | $0 |
| December 31 | 0.0% | 0.0% | $0 |
| November 30 | 0.0% | 0.0% | $0 |
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| Event | Outcomes | Volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|
| Which companies will be acquired before 2027? | 16 | $17.3M | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Which company has the best AI model end of March? | 11 | $15.9M | Mar 31, 2026 |
| IPOs before 2027? | 33 | $5.2M | Dec 31, 2026 |
| What will SpaceX's public ticker be? | 9 | $3.9M | Dec 31, 2027 |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | 1 | $3.0M | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Claude 5 released by…? | 9 | $2.9M | Apr 30, 2026 |