Total Volume
$873.8K
Outcomes
2
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquis...
All Outcomes
| Outcome | Yes | No | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 32.0% | 75.0% | $0 |
| March 31 | 0.2% | 99.9% | $1 |
More Politics Events
| Event | Outcomes | Volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | 44 | $938.3M | Nov 07, 2028 |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | 35 | $493.0M | Nov 07, 2028 |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | 36 | $472.5M | Nov 07, 2028 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | 4 | $88.3M | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Venezuela leader end of 2026? | 16 | $78.6M | Dec 31, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by...? | 10 | $62.5M | Dec 31, 2026 |